Tuesday, October 5, 2010

New York Times Gives Hamlin & Martin No Chance

It’s funny what you can stumble across when surfing the web. While surfing through the many news websites I stumbled upon this piece of gold from the New York Times. Apparently, the grey old lady is not giving Robyn Hamlin and Ed Martin much if any chance of winning their elections. Even though their polling shows Martin and Carnahan in a tight race, they are giving Ed Martin only a 5% chance of winning. In the case of Robyn Hamlin, they are giving her no chance of winning, predicting she will only take 24% of the vote in the first district.

You can find these forecasts here and here

Now, you may be asking yourself, where does this come from? Well, the Times appears to be using a group call FiveThirtyEight. You can find out more about them by going here.

I am sure some of you will read this and immediately believe this guy, Nate Silver, to be a political hack. You know what, he may be. That said, he is a stats junkie for Baseball Prospectus and tends to be right more than he is wrong. I have read and listened to this guy on the radio and he knows his stuff. Additionally, he made some early calls on the 2008 primaries that were spot on. He tends to know his stuff given enough information.

That said, I post this as more of a wake up call to you first and third MO district residents. This information is based upon history of the area including voter turnout, etc. but is also based upon polling data. In the case of Robyn Hamlin vs. Lacy Clay, it does not appear there is any polling data to support this case, it is all based upon history. In the case of Ed Martin vs. Russ Carnahan, it is based upon history and polls from August.

What does this mean, it means the establishment is writing off the challengers for these two districts. They are saying that Robyn and Ed have no chance of winning. Do no let this get you down, though. The forecasters have been wrong and will continue to be wrong. It is up to YOU to make the difference. In the case of Robyn Hamlin, all we have is history of the district. There have been no polls that I can find to show where she is truly at. In the case of Ed Martin, even though the polls are old, the forecasts are showing a fairly close race. YOU are the ones that need to make sure you vote and get other like minded individuals out there voting. YOU are the ones who need to make sure that the uninformed are informed. Otherwise the uninformed and the like minded will get their information from the MSM and either skip voting or be an uninformed voter.

We are now less than 30 days away. Quit hitting the snooze button and do what has to be done. Let’s prove the forecasters and the New York Times wrong.


JK said...

If you ask someone, do you want to fire Lacy Clay?
They (almost) always say YES.
Then you can tell them about Robyn Hamlin and to vote on Nov. 2.

But you have to ask!
All campaigns are working all the time.
What will you do? How much time will you give?

On Nov. 3, you can say "I did my part."
You will stand tall knowing your part in the process.

Middle Class Joe said...

That is the point of this post. I have received some comments that I was conceding these races to Carnahan and Clay. That is not the case at all.

Many of the pollsters are basing these races off of historical voter turnout. Due to a lack of polling it is tough to truly know where the candidates stand. If more people volunteer, register and vote, the pollsters can be proven wrong.

The guy at FiveThirtyEight is statiscally dead on if all things stay the same. What we have to do is make sure all things are not the same.