A few weeks ago I wrote an entry on the 2010 Census and the importance of this census. As you are probably aware, Lacy Clay and most of the Democrats are pushing to allow illegal immigrants to be counted towards the census and how it defines representation in the United States. Senator David Vitter attempted to add an amendment which would require all respondents announce their citizenship status.
I then saw that Lacy Clay was adamant that this amendment not pass and wondered why. As I always do, I began investigating this and what I found floored me. What I am going to talk about here is a lot of educated speculation and leans on multiple sources here, so come along with me if you will.
Based upon current population models, it looks like Missouri will lose a representative. Now, this is where the state politics of this get interesting. If Missouri loses a representative in the house, the state legislature and governor will redistrict the state. If you look at the state government, you have a GOP controlled House and Senate and a Dem Governor. Historically speaking, this type of split tends to lead to favoring incumbents and keeping historical strongholds. For more information on this, I suggest you Google redistricting as there are some very interesting sites out there (As a side note, I found that there are some people whose hobby is to create formulas and create redistricting maps. This is where I was able to get a lot of my information).
Based upon some of these models, if Missouri were to lose a representative in the House, all things seem to indicate that the one to be removed would be the current 3rd district. Based upon the models that some people are coming up with, Lacy Clay and the 1st district would expand out into more of the county and south city eating up part of the 2nd and 3rd district and the 2nd district would take over the remainder of the 3rd district and possibly some of the northern areas of the 1st district near northern St. Charles county. Now, if this were to occur, these changes would not go into effect until the 2012 election, but it could potentially pit Russ Carnahan, should he retain his district against Todd Aiken. While Jefferson County and south city tend to vote Democrat, Aiken would probably win as he would retain West County, St. Charles and possibly gain part of North County. That said it would probably mean a tough fight for anyone wanting to run for the 2nd District. To get a good idea of what I am talking about, go to Swingstate.com and do a search within the site for some MO projections. This is just one of many sites that have projections like this. The lines may change but the outcome seems to be universally the same, MO loses a seat. That is....
If Missouri is able to somehow prove population growth or at least no decline, Missouri may be able to keep the 9th seat. Lines will still be adjusted for population, but for the most part things would stay the same. So how does one work to keep MO population in check and help retain a Democratic seat within the House. To that I quote Lacy Clay's biography page on his website.
Nowhere does he say legal immigrants or citizens. What Lacy Clay wants to do is to count illegals in the city and outlying areas so that it can help save a House seat. Lacy Clay is not the only one that needs illegals to save seats. You see, population is decreasing in the North, Northeast and Midwest. Even though some of the major cities of the United States are in the North and Northeast (Boston, New York, Detroit, etc.) people are moving south. Based upon some projections by groups like POLIDATA, areas that tend to Republican will pick up many of the seats that Democrat states will lose. Here is a graphic that will better explain it.
I then saw that Lacy Clay was adamant that this amendment not pass and wondered why. As I always do, I began investigating this and what I found floored me. What I am going to talk about here is a lot of educated speculation and leans on multiple sources here, so come along with me if you will.
Based upon current population models, it looks like Missouri will lose a representative. Now, this is where the state politics of this get interesting. If Missouri loses a representative in the house, the state legislature and governor will redistrict the state. If you look at the state government, you have a GOP controlled House and Senate and a Dem Governor. Historically speaking, this type of split tends to lead to favoring incumbents and keeping historical strongholds. For more information on this, I suggest you Google redistricting as there are some very interesting sites out there (As a side note, I found that there are some people whose hobby is to create formulas and create redistricting maps. This is where I was able to get a lot of my information).
Based upon some of these models, if Missouri were to lose a representative in the House, all things seem to indicate that the one to be removed would be the current 3rd district. Based upon the models that some people are coming up with, Lacy Clay and the 1st district would expand out into more of the county and south city eating up part of the 2nd and 3rd district and the 2nd district would take over the remainder of the 3rd district and possibly some of the northern areas of the 1st district near northern St. Charles county. Now, if this were to occur, these changes would not go into effect until the 2012 election, but it could potentially pit Russ Carnahan, should he retain his district against Todd Aiken. While Jefferson County and south city tend to vote Democrat, Aiken would probably win as he would retain West County, St. Charles and possibly gain part of North County. That said it would probably mean a tough fight for anyone wanting to run for the 2nd District. To get a good idea of what I am talking about, go to Swingstate.com and do a search within the site for some MO projections. This is just one of many sites that have projections like this. The lines may change but the outcome seems to be universally the same, MO loses a seat. That is....
If Missouri is able to somehow prove population growth or at least no decline, Missouri may be able to keep the 9th seat. Lines will still be adjusted for population, but for the most part things would stay the same. So how does one work to keep MO population in check and help retain a Democratic seat within the House. To that I quote Lacy Clay's biography page on his website.
Congressman Clay is the Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Information Policy, Census and National Archives, which regulates the federal government’s information and privacy standards and also oversees the operations of the Census Bureau. One of Congressman Clay’s primary goals as chairman is to work with the Census Bureau to eliminate the undercount of African Americans, Hispanics and other minorities from the upcoming national census in 2010.
Nowhere does he say legal immigrants or citizens. What Lacy Clay wants to do is to count illegals in the city and outlying areas so that it can help save a House seat. Lacy Clay is not the only one that needs illegals to save seats. You see, population is decreasing in the North, Northeast and Midwest. Even though some of the major cities of the United States are in the North and Northeast (Boston, New York, Detroit, etc.) people are moving south. Based upon some projections by groups like POLIDATA, areas that tend to Republican will pick up many of the seats that Democrat states will lose. Here is a graphic that will better explain it.
Based upon this map, the GOP would have substantial gains in the House, helping to lower the current Democratic majority. The Democrats know about it and are very worried about this. Quietly they have already been talking about it as witnessed by this article written in December of last year. So how do you keep this from happening? How can the current Democratic majority keep a new wave of potential Republicans from coming into power. They count illegals. By counting illegals as citizens in the 2010 Census, the Democrats may be able to save some seats in California, Massachusetts and New York. This may work against them in Texas and Florida, but it seems it is a risk they are willing to take. Plus counting illegals in Texas and Florida, even if redistricted to give Republicans most if not all of the new districts, will give Democrats a chance at some of these new districts since it may thin out the Republican domination in areas. Why else would the Democrats want to work with a corrupt organization like ACORN to help with the census.
Now, as I said, this is all speculation, but it is an educated guess as to what is to come. 2012 is very important to both parties. It could be a change in the balance of power in the House, which could carry over into the White House. It's something to start thinking about. What do you think?
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