Lacy vs. Russ??

Lacy Clay versus Russ Carnahan.

Think about a primary like that for a minute.  Lacy vs. Russ.  If the boundaries stay the same, we may well see this primary run off.  Political speculation says it is going to happen.  So ask yourself, which one of these two would be easier to beat.  Which one of these two would be better for MO 1st district.

This is a tough one.  Both of these two come from MO political families and both have deep contribution ties in the area.  The interesting thing is, many of the trade unions and companies that donate to Lacy also donate to Russ.  So, political donations will be split between the two.

So, let's make some assumptions here, shall we.  If the first district Democratic candidates are Lacy and Russ, the financial contributions will probably be about equal, so that is a wash.  Lacy will probably take north St. Louis City and the surrounding counties, while Russ would take south St. Louis city and areas like Bridgeton, Maryland Heights, Florissant and Hazelwood.  Looking at a rough voter turnout from the past few years and making that assumption, it could be a wash in a primary vote.

What's your point here, you may be asking.  Well, I am going to ask each of you to sit down and take a deep breath.  Now ask yourself, who would be better for first district, Russ or Lacy.  Do you go with the devil we know or the devil we don't know.  Russ may look weaker than Lacy based off of the last election, but the vote was close due to a strong showing in Jefferson County and south St. Louis County.  Russ firmly held Democratic leaning districts.  If this campaign does come to pass, it may be up to the Libertarians and Republicans to help decide this primary election.

Are you ready to vote Democrat for the next primary?  While this is no slam against Robin or Martin, getting rid of Lacy may be our best hope for removing the scum that is Lacy Clay.  This year, the odds are already against a non Democrat winning that seat.  The best way to win this seat back for the people is to play the long game and use strategy on our side.  Get rid of Lacy and get someone like a Russ who is more pliable.  Use his more moderate leanings in some areas to our advantage.  Then, when the timing is right, he can be removed from office.

If this primary campaign comes to pass, the DNC will probably favor Lacy due to his involvement with the Congressional Black Caucus and because he is the incumbent for that district.  By voting for Russ in the primary, we are helping to ensure that Lacy does not get another shot at 2 years in office.

Some of you will balk at this idea and say that we should be above that.  To that let me say this.  Sometimes you have to play dirty to win.  There is nothing illegal or wrong with what I am advocating.  All you are doing, when you go into the polling place is saying you want a Democratic ticket.  That is all.

If you agree or disagree with me, I would love to hear your thoughts and comments.

How to Defeat Lacy Clay

Let's be honest and face the truth, shall we. Lacy Clay cannot be beat using standard methods. With the new setup for the 1st district, everything leans heavily in his favor. That is, if you think inside the box. For the most part, when people think of trying to dispose Lacy as our representative, they think of an Independent or Republican going one on one in an election. Much like with his father, the results are always the same, Lacy walks away with a generous win.

If we want to change the way the 1st district is represented we must recognize a couple of things:

1. Unless Lacy does or says something illegal or incredibly stupid, no Republican or Independent is going to beat him in an election.



2. St. Louis City and parts of North County lean too heavy in favor of Democrats over a Republican.



3. Lacy has a great support structure in that a majority of the townships and the city are run and controlled by Democrats who want and to a lesser extent need to be liked by Lacy Clay if they want Federal money.

If we want to beat Lacy, we have to do so strategically and recognize that it will take more than 2 years to do so.

The first thing you have to do is cut off his supply line. This can be done in two fashions:

1. Boycott people that fund Lacy's campaign coffers. Granted a lot of his money comes from unions, but there is a decent share that comes from local corporations that want to stay in good standing with him. Begin boycotting these companies and let them know that you will not do business with a company that supports a politician like Lacy Clay



2. Remove local politicians that support Lacy Clay and do much of his campaigning for him. This is probably the biggest and hardest part of this overall plan. It is something that will take more than a couple of election cycles, but can do serious damage to his support structure.

It all starts with school boards and city councils. If you are a moderate or conservative and want to see real change, you have to start with your local area and spread out. School board and city counsel representatives are more accessible to the populace. Because of this, they can get the message out in a much more casual and personal fashion than a Congressional candidate. And, they can do it quicker. So, the first thing that has to be done is to get more Republicans or even more anti tax and spend candidates elected into positions of local authority. As these people are in office and bringing about change, they will be able to spring board up as well as inspire others to follow in their footsteps.

Let me reiterate. This is the longest step in taking back control over our local government and eventually the 1st district. It is not something that can be done in 2 or even 4 years. It could take 8 or more years depending upon elections.

The second thing you have to do is keep Lacy honest. This means that we need to hold his feet to the fire every time he does and says something. God knows the media does it to just about every Republican and non line toting Democrat out there. If you know that Lacy is going to be giving a speech, go there and take notes or take video of them. Get it to me or another blogger like Gateway Pundit or Sharp Elbows to name a few. A lot of times candidates will say things that they do not want others to hear when there are no television cameras or reporters there. It is at times like these that you can hear a politician or candidate express their true opinions and that is when you can nail them.

The third thing is probably the hardest to swallow but can help weaken or even remove Lacy Clay and the dynasty he is creating. The third thing is to back a more moderate Democrat(s) while Republicans are found and put into those lower structures. I know it will pain some of you to hear this, but sometimes you can weaken a base more by splitting it. We see it all of the time on MSNBC and such when they try and split Republicans over disagreements on policy. They do everything they can to keep a big happy family for the Democrats because they know splintering the party works and leads to in-fighting and disorganization. So, the best thing to do is to swallow the hard pill support a moderate Democrat who can remove Lacy Clay. If you were to look at the last election primaries and take all of the votes for other candidates, Lacy got nearly 60% of all the votes. Now, imagine if everyone unified together and helped to support a moderate, Blue Dog Democrat. Lacy could be defeated in the primaries. From talking to friends and neighbors who are heavily involved in the local unions, they all express a dislike for Lacy, but support him because he is a Democrat and that is what they are supposed to do. If the unions had another option that they thought could win, many of the people I have talked to think their unions would hold off support until a clear winner is determined or one of their own runs.

Now, I know there are a lot of variables to this. I know that none of this is easy. I know it sounds better to try and throw good candidates up against Lacy but I must say, I hate seeing people like Martin and Robyn put their blood, sweat and tears into taking on this man and be swatted away like a fly. We must remain vigilant and look at this like a war. In war you have to cut off supply lines, have strategic bases, ground level leadership and sometimes make your enemies enemies your friends. If we do this, we can beat Lacy.

What do you think?

Post Election Thoughts

Tuesday night's election brought both joy and sorrow. I am very happy with the tsunami of Republicans that have won. With the support of Tea Party patriots, we have seen several candidates win and send packing many Congressman and Senators that needed to be sent home. I especially was happy with the wins by Rand Paul, Marco Rubio ,Pat Toomey and several other House gains. I was also very happy with the pickups in the Senate and the Governor races. More on the governor races in a bit.

I was also saddened by several things, probably most specifically the loss of Robyn Hamlin and Bill Corrigan. My wife and I are both big supporters of these two politicians. North County and St. Louis County saw fit to support the status quo instead of riding the wave of change. I expect that the union vote really helped Dooley and Clay. While Ed Martin is contesting his race with Russ Carnahan, I am also saddened with the voting issues that we saw in the third district. The issues that occurred statewide and the convenience of the additional votes appearing out of the city are truly suspect. It will be interesting to see what occurs once the vote is counted and completed.

As I write this after a long night I am listening to a replay of Obama's conference this afternoon. He takes little blame for what happened last night and he sputters a feeble attempt at an olive branch to the GOP. He refuses to admit that his administration's overreach is the reason for last nights large GOP gains. If this is what we are to expect over the next few years, it will make for a very interesting two years.

The elections are now, for the most part, over. Let's all take a breath and survey the surroundings. Let's truly look at what's ahead. There are a lot of things to consider now, including:

• Nancy Pelosi and the older house reps - There are indicators that many of the older House Dems will not look at retiring since the Dems lost so handily. Many of them do not want to go back to being the minority. These departures will lead to openings in the House. How will these openings change the dynamic.
  
• The census - The census will greatly effect the makeup of the house. As I discussed in THIS post and THIS one, the census will change the lay of the land. Missouri will probably lose a house seat as will a couple of other states.
  
• The governors races - Governors can help set the political tone of each state. The GOP wins in these races will dramatically help Republican causes. These governors will also help set the new lines for House districts as part of the upcoming redistricting.


• The legislative agenda - What will the House and Senate have as their legislative agenda. With Reid probably retaining leadership in the Senate and Boehner probably taking over the House, there are going to be two different and possibly competing agendas.

The next two years cannot be carte blanche no. Boehner cannot try and legislate from the House. Instead, the Republicans need to push for plans that lower taxes and create smaller government. I think everyone will agree that limited compromise is totally acceptable, but the Republicans cannot be obstructionists, otherwise they will get ousted in two years. If Senate Democrats and the President insist on not compromising or pushing a far left agenda, while the GOP lead House offers compromise and moderation, 2010 will be a warm up act for 2012.

Much like Boehner, Rubio and Paul all said last night, this was not an endorsement of the GOP, this was a call to action and a mandate against the president, Pelosi and Reid. I think Jamie Allman says it best, we are not married to you guys, we are just dating. We will see what happens from here on out. You better not disappoint us.

The two pet projects I would like to see addressed are some gerrymandering restrictions and Congressional and Senate term limits. I will be posting more on that in the future, but DSM over at Reboot Congress has written volumes on term limits and I suggest you take a look.

For Robyn Hamling and my fellow Robyn Hamlin supporters I say this, you put up a very valiant fight. It was a fight that many people have tried to wage. All of you spent countless man hours working the phones, going door to door and educating the public. Robyn had all of the right answers for a public group that just did not care. For some, this Congressional race was just about race. For others, it was about supporting the union machine that Lacy regularly supports. Just take a look at Lacy's FEC filings and you can see the amount of money the unions poured into his campaign. He helps them out by pushing through government spending for Boeing, the Federal Government and other big union shops. This loss was probably a combination of the right candidate at the wrong time. I do take some solace that Lacy got less than 75% of the votes. This district has been gerrymandered to the point where winning would be tough for just about anyone without a D behind their name. Robyn and her team worked hard and were able to accomplish a lot. I hope that this can be the stepping stone for bigger things in 2012. Even though we did not get a win, we can continue to work with the St. Louis Tea Party and other local candidates and representatives to make North County and North City a better place. For all you have done, though, I say thank you and good job.

Tomorrow's Election - Thoughts and Recommendations

To everyone that reads this blog, I first say thank you. I started it with the simple goal of venting my frustration. In doing so it has turned into a type of catharsis, a source of new friends and a way to pass on the knowledge that I have acquired through my years and my obsessive tendencies to research an issue, person, etc.

After tomorrow, I may post once or twice and then I am going to take a break. My wife and I have been busy helping raise awareness and campaigning for several candidates. Rather than go to a victory party, we are going to spend the evening, quietly, at home, watching the results. I will say a prayer for the winners and losers, go to bed, and go to work the next day. With that said, I feel the need for a sanity break and have chosen to take one after the election. Yes, I will probably post some post election thoughts, but afterwards I will be out of the loop for awhile.

Before I go any further, I want to take a moment and give a special hat tip to Darren over at Reboot Congress. He was one of the first people in the blogging community to welcome me as well as give advice. He does some great work that should be noticed by all. I love his recent YouTube video, which I have embedded below.





Now, on to my suggestions for the upcoming election. I am sticking to the first district and not including state representatives on this one.

• US Senate - I am holding my nose on this one and picking Roy Blunt. This is more of a vote against Robyn Carnahan than it is support of Roy.


• US Congressional Race - This is a no brainer. I am voting for Robyn Hamlin (@Hamlin4Congress )


• MO State Auditor - Tom Schweich has my vote. Susan Montee is a drunk and a fool and needs to be fired and Tom has the experience needed to do this job.


• St. Louis County Executive - Bill Corrigan has my vote. Charlie Doolie is as crooked as a country road. We need Bill Corrigan in there for St. Louis County.


• Amendment 1 - I am voting and recommending a YES vote. Any governmental assessor, city or county, should be elected and not appointed


• Amendment 2 - As much as I would like to vote yes, I am voting NO on this one. Look, we all want lower taxes, but to amend the state constitution to give tax breaks to one group of individuals over another is wrong. Everyone should have lower taxes.


• Amendment 3 - I am voting and recommending a YES vote. Leaving the possibility of any additional taxes to the sale of real estate is like leaving your front door open when you leave the house and expecting yourself not to get robbed. Just because there is not one in place, does not mean there should not be a rule prohibiting it. A tax like this can kill home sales and the real estate market.


• Prop A - I am voting and recommending a YES vote. Let the voters decide whether or not there should be a tax increase on the municipal level. If St. Louis and Kansas City choose to continue having one, let them vote on it.


• Prop B - I am voting and recommending a NO vote. Everyone hates puppy mills but there are already laws on the books to prevent them, they are just not being enforced. A law like this, as loosely written as it is could definitely hurt any and all ranching in the state of Missouri.

If all polling is correct, tomorrow could be a very good day for the GOP and the Tea Party. With that said, those that win should know that I and other bloggers will still hold them accountable, no matter what party affiliation, to representing their constituents and acting in good faith on our behalf. If they do not, they will be fired just as many already have.

Finally, make sure you get out the vote. Over 200 years ago, many brave men and women fought and died for the privilege of voting that we have today. The simple act of voting makes your voice heard and quite frankly gives you the right to complain about those that do not act in your interest. #GOTV - GET OUT THE VOTE.

Clay vs. Hamlin - The Choice Is Clear

So Lacy Clay is out stumping to retain his seat in Congress. He is trying to say that he is being misrepresented and...

My Republican opponent wants to reverse course, cancel the Recovery Act, put insurance companies back in charge of your health care, give Wall Street speculators a free handle to steal even more of your retirement dollars, and then explode the deficit by giving tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires.

Her Tea Party friends and the Republican leadership are part of an extremist partnership who want to use intolerance, ignorance and outright lies to cripple President Barack Obama, and turn America back to a much darker time. I’m confident that the voters of the First Congressional District will totally reject that.

More of this dribble can be found here. I suggest you read it and take notice to his lack of agenda or plans. He talks of job creation and building a stronger community, but he does not talk about what he plans to do about it.

As I have talked about in several posts, Lacy Clay has not done anything to truly improve the first district. In fact he refuses to hold open townhall meetings and as noted by myself and others including a letter to the editor in the St. Louis Post Dispatch, is nearly impossible to get a hold of.

As a refresher, take a look at these posts:

NEW TAXPAYER FINANCED JOBS IN ST. LOUIS
WHAT HAPPENED TO TRANSPARENCY LACY
CLAY WILLING TO GO THE DISTANCE - FOR RENT TO OWN INDUSTRY
CLAY BACKS BANKS WITH NO BUSINESS PLAN
LACY CLAY AND PAYDAY LOANS - Two articles HERE and HERE
LACY CLAY AND THE RENT TO OWN INDUSTRY

On top of this, Lacy has yet to even speak his opinion on what his plan is for the expiring Bush Tax Cuts (other than blame Republicans) and he has not yet commented on the claim that he is one of 70 members of the Democratic Socialists of America (Discussed HERE). Add to that, Lacy Clay was given a failing grade by the Center for Security Policy.

All Lacy has proven he can do is attempt to expand government to create jobs and promote himself. I give the guy credit, he comes off as a like able guy in interviews and he knows how to present himself. That said, he has had the job for 10 years and has not proven himself as a true leader for the first district or Missouri.

His opponent, Robyn Hamlin, is a small business owner who has had to deal with the concepts of job creation, health care benefits and balancing a budget. She has not done these as some ivory tower intellectual in Washington, who has never held a job outside of politics. No, she has done so in the real world, dealing with real world issues.

Is Robyn perfect. No, but I think she would agree that she is not. Does she have a better sense of what we need to do to create jobs, balance our federal budget and keep our nation safe? I think so and I am not the only one.

NumbersUSA has ranked Robyn as a "True Reformer"
Robyn is endorsed by

• Liberty Candidates
• Missouri Eagle Forum
• Americans for Legal Immigration

Robyn also signed the Tea Party Treaty

Just listen to and read her interviews, and you can see that she is the candidate that we need. You can find some HERE, HERE and HERE

If Robyn is elected, I plan, and expect each of you, to hold her feet to the fire, just as we would Lacy Clay or any other candidate.

If you are happy with things in the first district and our country, then Lacy is your guy. If you want to see a non politician go into Washington and help to clean up the corruption and politics as usual, then vote for Robyn.

Let's send Robyn to Washington as part of the Republican congressional takeover and party like it's November 1994

Yard Sign Theft

All,

We need your help in the 1st district. Robyn Hamlin's office has been made aware of people stealing yard signs and in one reported case replacing them with signs for Charlie Dooley.

According to Robyn Hamlin as posted on her Facebook page:

We have a voice mail on the campaign phone and a guy says that he is removing 5
of our signs a day from St. Louis City. The call came in from Cutex Corp and I
called them and let them listen to the voicemail. The VP there assured me it was
not one of their employees. We have tracked it back to a truck driver.

And

..Just got a call from a lady who saw an elderly man taking down our campaign
signs on Shamrock at Howdershell. She said he had a lot of our signs
in his trunk and was putting up Dooley signs.

It is obvious that the opposition is afraid of the message that is being presented. Lacy is just now sending out mailers. He assumed that he was not going to get a fight and Robyn is giving it to him. Check that, Robyn is giving him a fight and YOU are not willing to sit on the sidelines and let him win.

If any of you see these things happening, take a camera phone picture or video. Call the police and email it to Robyn or me. We will post it online and get it all across the blogosphere.

Be vigilent. They are worried and resorting to illegal tactics to keep the message from getting to the voters.

It is happening in other states and we are now seeing signs of it happening here.

Do what you can to help. We CAN win this!

Robyn on Allman In the Morning

On Thursday morning, Robyn Hamlin appeared in the last hour of Jamie Allman's show on 97.1 FM Talk.

It's great to hear her message getting out there and that people are receptive to her and her campaign.

Add to that the letter to the editor which just appeared in the Post Dispatch and that leads to a lot of positive momentum going into November 2nd.

There is still a lot to do and we still need a lot of volunteers to help Robyn and her campaign. If you can spare anytime during the week or weekend, do what you can to help her campaign out. Let's help get out the vote and fire Lacy Clay!

Get Out and Volunteer While You Still Can

This is a quick post.

I received an email from a friend asking me where I have been. In all bluntness, I am out working the ground. My wife volunteered to work on a couple of campaigns and I am helping her. Even now there are still many people who have not made up their minds. It is our job to inform them of their options and make sure they are informed voters.

As I have said all along, it is now up to each of YOU to make sure you are working with a candidate. Are you in the second district and want to make sure that DC is not being controlled by Reid and Pelosi, then get up off your couch/office chair and volunteer.

This weekend, Robyn Hamlin, ED Martin, Bill Corrigan and the St. Louis Tea Party can all use your help.

If you want to help but don't know how check out these sites

Robyn Hamlin - http://www.hamlinforcongress.com/
Ed Martin - http://edmartinforcongress.com/
Bill Corrigan - http://www.corriganforexec.com/
St. Louis Tea Party - http://www.stlouisteaparty.com/

Also, do you live on or near a busy intersection or street. You can help out by allowing one or several of these campaigns to put out yard signs. Believe it or not, the name recognition helps.

Right now, the Dems are on the ropes and are scared. All of their gerrymandering of districts over the years is not helping them with this election. Carnahan and Clay have both voted for very unpopular bills including health care control, TARP, and the auto bailout. These bills were all passed and have done little to nothing to improve our overall economic condition.

I am signing off for now to go work the campaigns. You should do the same.

Lacy Clay's Radio Interview

In case you did not know or hear about it, Congressman Lacy Clay was on KWMU on Monday. Don Marsh gave what I will call a friendly interview with Clay, not really challenging him as much as he could have been. You can listen to the interview here:

Windows Media Version or MP3 Version

Honestly, you do not really get anything new out of Lacy that we have not heard before. That said, there were a couple of things that I found interesting.

1. Why is it that Lacy feels the only way to creat jobs is via the government. He touts jobs saved but it was only through government intervention. He talks about 600 jobs created but it was only because of newly created government jobs. At no time did he talk about making it easier for businesses to hire new employees. He did briefly mention the small business bill, but that was in reference to his whining about Republicans being obstructionist.


2. When did Lacy Clay become a hawk (pro defense). This is a man who repeatedly talks about and speaks ill of going to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, yet he talked highly of the defense spending for Boeing. Maybe it is just me, but it seems hypocritical.


3. He talked of the cynicism and obstructionism of Republicans and how after the election they should have come together to work with Obama. Well, it seams to me that the Democrats are just as guilty of obstructionism, see Freddie and Fannie reform as covered previously, and Republicans did offer alternatives that Obama, for the most part refused to listen to.

After listening to the interview, I was able to touch bsae with Robyn Hamlin regarding his remarks about the Federal Reserve. He took some not so subtle swipes at Robyn and others regarding the Fed. This is what Robyn had to say.

He would not co-sponsor HR 1207 until Barney Frank told him it was okay and by
that time there were enough co-sponsors for the bill to pass if it made it to the floor. Clay sits on the financial services committee and they watered it down then added it to another bill. He did NOT vote for HR 1207 to Audit The Fed in it's initial wording. The Audit The Fed bill was a one page bill.

In essence, Lacy did not have the backbone to do what is right and stand up for a cause. He had to wait for others to get involved.

Lacy is lock step in with the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank.

New York Times Gives Hamlin & Martin No Chance

It’s funny what you can stumble across when surfing the web. While surfing through the many news websites I stumbled upon this piece of gold from the New York Times. Apparently, the grey old lady is not giving Robyn Hamlin and Ed Martin much if any chance of winning their elections. Even though their polling shows Martin and Carnahan in a tight race, they are giving Ed Martin only a 5% chance of winning. In the case of Robyn Hamlin, they are giving her no chance of winning, predicting she will only take 24% of the vote in the first district.

You can find these forecasts here and here

Now, you may be asking yourself, where does this come from? Well, the Times appears to be using a group call FiveThirtyEight. You can find out more about them by going here.

I am sure some of you will read this and immediately believe this guy, Nate Silver, to be a political hack. You know what, he may be. That said, he is a stats junkie for Baseball Prospectus and tends to be right more than he is wrong. I have read and listened to this guy on the radio and he knows his stuff. Additionally, he made some early calls on the 2008 primaries that were spot on. He tends to know his stuff given enough information.

That said, I post this as more of a wake up call to you first and third MO district residents. This information is based upon history of the area including voter turnout, etc. but is also based upon polling data. In the case of Robyn Hamlin vs. Lacy Clay, it does not appear there is any polling data to support this case, it is all based upon history. In the case of Ed Martin vs. Russ Carnahan, it is based upon history and polls from August.

What does this mean, it means the establishment is writing off the challengers for these two districts. They are saying that Robyn and Ed have no chance of winning. Do no let this get you down, though. The forecasters have been wrong and will continue to be wrong. It is up to YOU to make the difference. In the case of Robyn Hamlin, all we have is history of the district. There have been no polls that I can find to show where she is truly at. In the case of Ed Martin, even though the polls are old, the forecasts are showing a fairly close race. YOU are the ones that need to make sure you vote and get other like minded individuals out there voting. YOU are the ones who need to make sure that the uninformed are informed. Otherwise the uninformed and the like minded will get their information from the MSM and either skip voting or be an uninformed voter.

We are now less than 30 days away. Quit hitting the snooze button and do what has to be done. Let’s prove the forecasters and the New York Times wrong.

Now Playing In A Theater Near You

Robyn Hamlin Radio Interview

This post marks my 100th post as a blogger. Seeing as I do not post multiple times a day this is a somewhat momentous occasion for me. This post occurs just a few weeks after my 1 year anniversary of starting this blog. No matter what happens in the coming months, I hope to continue to offer the investigative and in depth reporting for the 1st district that the St. Louis Post will not do.

With that said, I do not know if anyone caught it, but Robyn Hamlin was a guest on St. Louis NPR yesterday morning. Here is her interview with Don Marsh from this morning. Robyn makes up the first 23 minutes of this recording.

Windows Media Version or MP3 Version

While NPR may not be the most hospitable crowd for Robyn as a candidate, I was glad to hear that someone gave her a chance to talk on the radio. We all need to make sure that we listen when Lacy Clay is on so that we can ask him the questions that we would normally have at a town hall, if he were to ever have one. We must be respectful but at the same time ask him the hard questions he should be asked and hold him accountable for his actions and inactions in the House of Representatives.

Additionally, everyone needs to recognize that part of politics is getting your name out there. Lacy Clay has had it easy since he can ride on the coattails of his father. Robyn does not have that luxury. If you know anyone in the radio, TV or print business, work with them to get Robyn's name out there. Ask them to do an interview with her, do a piece on the small businesswoman running for office, etc. This is the type of press that she needs and is not getting. Lacy Clay is smart and his inaction during recess means that the press does not have to look for opposing viewpoints. We need to get Robyn and the first district on every one's minds. This blog can only do so much.

Do You Know Your District? - UPDATED

As I talked about in an earlier post HERE, the census is very important to politicians. Yes it gives government an idea of who lives where and all sorts of statistical data, but it also plays a very important part to the House of Representatives. After the 2000 census, St. Louis was re-districted.

Here is what the 1st, 2nd and 3rd districts looked like pre-redistricting. Maps courtesy of the US Census

The districts were changed after the census to look like this.

The third district saw some changes, but the second and first districts were changed the most. Parts of north county as well as a decent chunk of west county were all taken from the second district and moved into the first. This change was done in such a way to almost guarantee the status quo, thus meaning the first district would be represented by a Democrat.

The sad thing is, a lot of people do not know that they were moved around. This became very apparent when a co-worker who lives in Maryland Heights was complaining that she had no one to vote against Todd Akin (she is a yellow dog Democrat). When I challenged her on whether or not she was in Akin's district, she swore she was. I had her go to this tool HERE. Low and behold she found out that she is in fact in District 1. She was not even looking because she was sure that she was in the 2nd district. This got me thinking, so I started asking more and more people that live in Maryland Heights, Hazelwood area and many, not all, thought that they were still in the second district.

So, it was with great surprise that I received an email with the following video.

Take the time and learn what district you are in and make sure you cast your ballot come November 2nd.

Political Donations and You

What does a donation mean to a political candidate? Well, if you are challenging an established incumbent, it can mean a lot. In St. Louis, we have two candidates that are challenging established incumbents with decent war chest funds. These challengers need YOUR time, effort and yes money to be able to succeed.

Why do they need YOUR donations, you may be asking. There are two reasons.

1. Candidates need donations of time and money. They need:
• time because they cannot be at all places at all times. They need people to help organize fundraisers, drop literature, assist at events, make phone calls, make mailers, answer the phones, etc. A volunteer, a true volunteer and not one of the Democrat paid volunteers, is worth their weight in gold to a candidate. They are the lifeblood of a challenger and can make the difference in a tight election.
• money because that is what it takes to get their name out. Money is needed to register to run, print flyers, run advertisements on radio and TV, get a web page made, have a phonebank make calls and even rent and operate a headquarters.
• stuff. You would be surprised what kind of stuff a candidate needs. They need computers and printers. If they have printers, they need toner and paper. If they have a headquarters, the need furniture. They need yard signs, bumper stickers, buttons, shirts and hats. They need all of the things that a normal business needs to operate, but they need it quicker.
2. If the money comes from you, the candidate is being paid for by you. If the candidate gets their money from PACs and companies, they are indebted to these companies. Not all candidates are this way. There are several out there that do what is right for the people. That said, there are many that are willing to do what is right for their campaign contributors. Do you think Lacy Clay would give a care for the Rent to Own industry if they did not pay him or his personal PAC so much money? If you want a candidate that is going to represent you and not have to make deals with companies and PAC's to get money, then YOU have to donate and not leave it to the interest groups

Based upon the current, as of data available today, Federal Elections Commission information, here is how the two races look in regards to donations. Both Russ Carnahan and Lacy Clay have received more money from PAC's than they have from individuals. Don't believe me, click on the images below to see for yourself. These come straight from the FEC website.

If you want to do your own homework, click HERE to go to the Missouri page.

To add insult to injury, of Lacy Clay's $185,642 in individual contributions, $89,420 is from people out of the state of Missouri. In the case of Russ Carnahan, $96,510 out of $575,207 is from people out of the state of Missouri. While Russ has a higher percentage of Missouri donations, both seem to be receiving a lot of money from out of state interests.

In the interest of fairness, I have to say that Ed Martin has received a considerable amount of money from out of state individuals too. Of his $820,064 in individual donations, $101,916 comes from individuals out of state. Robyn Hamlin does not have any individual donations listed, meaning that she has not received, any individual donations over $200.00.

Across the board, people agree that it is time to get rid of the established and entrenched Democrats that have sat in the Senate and Congress for years and done nothing for their constituents. If you really want this to occur, the candidates need your help. They need your financial support and they need your time.

Now, let me say something for those in Missouri in and out of the MO first district. Robyn Hamlin needs your help. There has been no time within in recent history that we have been this close to being able to get rid of Lacy Clay. While many are focusing on the Russ Carnahan vs Ed Martin fight, Robyn is getting ignored. She needs your help too. Lacy Clay is beatable. If you would just please give her a few dollars, it can go a long way. Skipping Starbucks or brown bagging lunch for a week for one person can by some additional flyers, yard signs or bumper stickers. If you can, please go to her website at http://www.hamlinforcongress.com/ and make a donation.

Lacy - I have a simple question

OK, in case you have not heard about this, there is a chain email going around stating that there are 70 members in the US Congress that are a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. A copy of the document can be found on Scribd HERE

Now, I am not one to forward rumors and such, but there is something very interesting about this email. Why has no one that has been listed on this email stood up and said that it is not true? There is no way that they do not know about this email chain. It has been picked up by bloggers all over the US. I know that someone from the US House of Representatives hits my blog at least once a week, so you know that Congressional members are having their staff surf the net to look for news on them. How could they claim they have no knowledge of this.

There are either two answers:

1. It is completely true and the seventy members listed cannot stand up and deny it.
2. It is not true, but since the MSM will not run with the story, they are not going to answer it.

While I am not the mainstream media, as a voter I will ask the question. Lacy Clay, are you a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, their PAC, caucus or any related group?

Look at the list and see if you have a Congressman or Congresswoman on that list. If so, call up their office and ask them or their staff to answer this question. Post a comment or email me with the answer you get.

Just a Couple of Things.

NEW TAXPAYER FINANCED JOBS IN ST. LOUIS

So, did you hear that 500 million dollars in stimulus money was used to create 200 new jobs here in St. Louis. That means that it cost the government $250,000 per job to create these new positions here locally. And you will love this, these are not private sector jobs. No, these are Federal Government jobs and are a part of Social Security. You can find more on this story HERE

Isn't it amazing that the government can spend $250,000 per person to create 200 new jobs. While I understand they had to renovate an empty building to create the offices, it took 500 million to do so? Really. I would think that they could outsource this to a qualified company for a lot less money. Don't you.

And I love Lacy's quote

“Any time we can do a better job at serving and saving taxpayers money at the
same time, that is a double win,” said U.S. Rep. Wm. Lacy Clay.

It's a shame that he does not know anything about budgeting money and such. I think a regular business student from UMSL would realize that the private sector could probably do this job cheaper and just as efficiently as the Federal Government. That said, people like Lacy only know how to make the government bigger and make more people dependent upon the government for their livelihood.
NEW PICS

As I drive around St. Louis, I like to take pics of things that I find amusing. Here are a couple from the past few days.

I really hope to start seeing more of these soon.

In case you cannot read it, it says - FREEDOM LIBERTY NOT MORE GOVERNMENT
Even though it is out of the way, I make sure I patronize this establishment.
They are located on Howdershell near 270

If you have any pics from the 1st District you would like to share, send them my way.

FACEBOOK

I am now on Facebook. If you want to friend me please do. You can of course find me as MiddleClass Joe. I will be posting pics, links etc.

A Message From Candice

Candice Britton contacted me and asked that I pass the following message on to all of you:

Thank you to all that cast your vote for me on August 3, 2010.
I am sorry I did not get the job done for you.
The people spoke and they hired Mr. Clay.
I respect their vote.
Congratulations’ Mr. Clay.
God Bless to all,
Candice “Britt” Britton
http://www.candicebritton.com/index.html

The Bush Tax Cuts and You

A lot has been made about the Bush tax cuts. Paul Ryan, God love him, has been on just about every pundit show expressing and emphasizing the need to extend the Bush tax cuts. Although he has not said so lately, to my knowledge, Lacy Clay voted against making the Bush tax cuts permanent in April 2002 (107th Congress (2001 - 2002) H.R.586).

We all know that President Obama promised not to increase taxes for anyone making less than $250,00 a year. So I had to find, how do the Bush tax cuts effect MO 1st District.

Here are the parameters I set for this exercise. I assumed I am dealing with a family of 4, 2 adults and 2 children under 17 who make whatever the median household income is for the 1st district. I also assumed that they filed using the EZ form and did not take out advanced deductions.

To start, I had to find out what the average income was for all of the first district. For this, as I do not pay for the latest and greatest information, I referred to CQ Politics and their page on MO 1st. Their information was all based upon the 2000 census. Based upon their information, the median household income was $36,314. Assuming that the range would be the same, I adjusted for inflation and came to a 2010 median household income of $44,796.

Taking, that $44,796 I calculated the MO income tax using the MO Dept of Revenue page. Based upon the calculator, this family would pay $1,272 in income taxes each year.

Using this information, I plugged these figures into the calculator at MyTaxBurden.org and here is what I found. (CLICK THE PIC BELOW TO ENLARGE)

As you can see, a family making $44,796 would see them owe $2,000 in taxes , while they would pay nothing in and get a $93 return should the Bush tax cuts continue. The proposed Obama proposed budget would give this family a over $1,000 tax return. That said, the Obama proposed budget has not been passed, therefor it is truly difficult to assume that these figures would remain the same once put in place.

Focusing back on the difference between the expiring cuts and extending them, we are looking at some pretty substantial changes should these cuts not continue. This includes

1. Tax Rates. The top tax rate will go from 35% to 39.6%. In addition, if nothing is done, it will mean higher taxes across the board. See the proposed 2011 tax rates for more information.
2. Capital Gains. The 0% long term capital gains rate will go away. Capital gains rates will go up to 10% for lower tax brackets and from 15% to 20% for higher tax brackets.
3. Dividends. Dividends will be taxed as ordinary income, with the new higher rates. Right now the dividend tax rates are 10% and 15%.
4. Child Tax Credit. The child tax credit will return to $500 from the current $1,000 per child. In addition, it may not be refundable for some taxpayers.
5. 529 Plans. 529 plan withdrawals will not be allowed tax free for computer or Internet access.
6. Business Taxes. In addition, various business taxes will change including the payroll tax credit and section 179 expense deduction.
7. Estate Taxes. Without any action, the estate tax (or death tax as some like to call it) exemption will go back to a $1 million exemption.
8. Other Tax Credits. The tuition credits will be limited, as will the earned income tax credit.
9. Mortgage Premiums. You will no longer be able to deduct mortgage insurance premiums after December 31, 2010.
10. Return of the Marriage Penalty. Married couples filing jointly will no longer get equal tax breaks compared to non-married couples who file separately.

Based upon these facts, expiration of the Bush tax cuts will have a dramatic affect on many of the people in the first district. Looking at the 2000 census statistics alone, you see that 42.2% of those living in the first district will see an increase due to the return of the marriage penalty. Using those same numbers, 62% live in owner occupied housing. You would have to assume that at least 5% of that 62% (3.1%) pays some sort of mortgage insurance which would increase their tax burden. Additionally, 26% of the total population of the first district is under the age of 18. This means that a good chunk of the taxable population would lose the additional child tax credit. The amount of people is difficult to estimate due to not knowing how many children there are per household and whether or not those children have both parents living at home. That said, even if somehow every household had just 2 children per household, this would affect 91,109 households or 14.7% of the district.

The numbers I have put up here are staggering. In this day and age, $2,000 can still mean a lot of money. It can mean being able to afford sending your kids to private school or even homeschooling your children. It can mean being able to afford a home improvement. Or it could just mean padding your savings account for a rainy day.

Without a budget in place, it is imperative for the first district and the country that the Bush tax cuts continue.

Run the numbers for yourself using the calculator. It WILL scare you.

Now is the time to educate your friends and family. Don't trust that the Congress will do something. Get on the phone and demand to know what your representative is going to do. Demand to know if they are going to push to extend the tax cuts or what their plan is. Let them know that you WILL hold them accountable come November if they do not take care of you, their constituent.

Now On To November

First off, I want to congratulate Robyn Hamlin on winning the primary to run against Lacy Clay. She and Martin D. Baker both had good primary showings. I talked to Martin earlier today and he wanted to "thank all of the wonderful people who helped through this adventure and will continue to support the conservative movement and true conservative candidates". Martin had more to say which I will discuss in an upcoming post

I also want to take a moment and congratulate Candice Britton on a well fought race. Candice had the tough challenge of taking on an incumbent within her own party. Candice was able to secure 19% of the Democrat vote during this primary. With few funds and a lot of hard work, she was able to do a lot. I think this shows the level of dissatisfaction voters have with the current Congress.

With that said, it is now on to November. Robyn Hamlin vs. Lacy Clay will be on the ballot for the November election in the first district. Not to be a wet blanket, but we need to now talk facts. Here are the numbers being reported for Tuesday's vote.

Name	Party	Votes	Vote %
Clay, Lacy (i)	Dem	36,762	59.549%
Britton, Candice	Dem	8,488	13.749%
Hamlin, Robyn	GOP	10,231	16.573%
Baker, Martin	GOP	4,509	7.304%
Works, Marshall	GOP	1,457	2.360%
Stone, Julie	Lib	149	0.241%
Cunningham, Robb	Lib	138	0.224%

As you can see, Lacy has a commanding lead in the vote totals. He took nearly 60% all votes coming in. I know he is the incumbent, but that means we are going to have to work harder and be even more diligent.

The public needs to be made more aware of how he is not working for the people, but instead for special interests and himself. There is enough out there to show his ineptitude. Simply look at:

• his convienent relationship with the rent to own and cash advance companies
• his desire to not be held accountable by the Congressional Ethics Committee
• the documented waste of money in this years census of which Lacy is the Congressional chairman of the committee in charge
• His support of the Federal Health Care
• The mysterious campaign payments to his sister
• His lake of ethics when it comes to taking corporate campaign contributions from companies he rallies agains.

My friends, now is the time to unite and bring down Lacy. We can bicker with one another about certain policies, fiscal reform, etc. I welcome those debates. I encourage those debates. But now is not the time for people to take their ball and go home. We have a candidate in Robyn who has the potential to bring Lacy down. We are all responsible adults who love our country and want to see it prosper. We want everyone to have the chance to succeed and fail. Lacy wants everyone to have guaranteed success by making those that have succeeded fail. We can't afford that. Let us all stand together to help and support Robyn.

Let me tell you a quick story. At my work, there is a small group of us that are all varying degrees of right of center, some more than others. On the day of the elections, a couple of people were talking about voting for Ed Martin. I was asked if I voted for Ed and I explained that I was in the 1st district. Both of them basically sighed and said," ooooh, that's Lacy Clay. You will never be able to get rid of him."

That statement right there is why Lacy continues to win. The perception is that he is a guaranted win for the Democrats. In Robyn, we have a politically active, small business owner, who can step up and talk about everyday scenarios. She can talk to the issues everyone is facing because she is facing them too. Lacy wants everyone to think he is unbeatable, so no one tries. Those that do are not able to get the support needed because everyone thinks it is a no win situation.

So, here is what we need to do.

1. Everyone needs to call Lacy Clay's office and ask for debates between him and Robyn.
2. Everyone needs to start talking up Robyn as the alternative to Lacy
3. Donate. Donate. Donate. We all need to donate either our time, our money or both. Pick up a yard sign, a car magnet or something.
4. Stay alert to what is going on. Lacy and his team will be out there robo calling or making statements about Robyn. If you hear these things or see them, pull out your cell phone and take a picture/video. Email me and we will get it out among the people.
5. Host a get together and invite Robyn or one of her staff. If you are having a big enough get together, call a Jamie Allman, Dana Loesch or Gina Louden and talk about it on one their shows.

These are just a few things that we all can do. This is our district, not Lacy's. Let's take it back for all of the people and not just a select few.

So, what do you think? Are you in?

One Week Till August 3rd - What Have You Done

It is one week till the August 3rd elections. If you STILL have not done your homework and do not know what is going to be on the ballot, click HERE to be directed to the StlToday article on what is being voted on.

While all of the measures, primaries, etc. are important, I believe there are two that are of most importance to anyone living in Missouri and specifically the first district. Those are Prop C and the Congressional House of Representatives primary. By now, I have bent over backwards to give you information on the candidates. That said, once again, here are my interviews with the three running against Lacy Clay

Candice Britton interview - HERE
Robyn Hamlin interview - HERE
Martin D. Baker interview - HERE

I will say it one more time. We HAVE to get rid of the Clay political dynasty. The Clay's have done nothing but run on their name and empty promises that the populace of north city and county continue to accept. Ask yourself one question, what has Lacy Clay done to make north city and county of St. Louis a better place. Sure, he coordinates a job fair, but that is it. He has done nothing to help bring more jobs, he has done nothing to promote economic stimulus. Instead, he is for taxation and unbridled spending. Tax the "rich" is what he wants to do.

Let me tell you who the "rich" are according to Lacy Clay. The rich are the small family run businesses all over the area. These are the franchises like the Shell stations, or the local dry cleaners, the mom and pop restaurants and sports bars, the shaved ice stands, the local electricians and plumbers, etc. These are the "rich" according to Lacy. Of course, Lacy has never really worked a job so he would not truly understand earning a living or working for his money. Instead, he sees himself as duke that can take money from lobbyist so he can pay his dues while at the same time blasting companies. Just check out these two videos.

With the first one, Lacy blasts WalMart for their employee practices

With the second one, he says he is going to keep their lobbying money anyway

This is the hypocrisy that we have in office right now. If this was a Republican, Lacy and the press would be all over this issue.

Do the right thing and vote this clown out. Let's have a November election that pits Candice Britton vs either Martin Baker or Robyn Hamlin.

In regards to Prop C. I simply say this. Do you want the option to participate in Federal Healthcare plan or do you think participation should be mandatory. That is it. If you think that it should be optional, then you should vote for Prop C. I could go on and on, but the fine people over at Citizens Commission on Human Rights of St. Louis have put together a very good piece on this that you can find HERE.

In closing, in the end it is up to you. It is up to you to show up at the polls and it is up to you to vote. Men and women for the last 200 years across the great country have died for your rights. Those rights include your right to vote. Please do so and do so intelligently.

P.S - If you have already made up your mind, please consider donating your time and or money to a candidate. $5 can make a difference. Buying a yard sign or bumper magnet can help get the word out. If you have an available day and cannot afford to donate money, donate your time by handing out leaflets or working a phone bank. Please help out however you can. I can say I have. Can you?