Lacy vs. Russ??

Lacy Clay versus Russ Carnahan.

Think about a primary like that for a minute.  Lacy vs. Russ.  If the boundaries stay the same, we may well see this primary run off.  Political speculation says it is going to happen.  So ask yourself, which one of these two would be easier to beat.  Which one of these two would be better for MO 1st district.

This is a tough one.  Both of these two come from MO political families and both have deep contribution ties in the area.  The interesting thing is, many of the trade unions and companies that donate to Lacy also donate to Russ.  So, political donations will be split between the two.

So, let's make some assumptions here, shall we.  If the first district Democratic candidates are Lacy and Russ, the financial contributions will probably be about equal, so that is a wash.  Lacy will probably take north St. Louis City and the surrounding counties, while Russ would take south St. Louis city and areas like Bridgeton, Maryland Heights, Florissant and Hazelwood.  Looking at a rough voter turnout from the past few years and making that assumption, it could be a wash in a primary vote.

What's your point here, you may be asking.  Well, I am going to ask each of you to sit down and take a deep breath.  Now ask yourself, who would be better for first district, Russ or Lacy.  Do you go with the devil we know or the devil we don't know.  Russ may look weaker than Lacy based off of the last election, but the vote was close due to a strong showing in Jefferson County and south St. Louis County.  Russ firmly held Democratic leaning districts.  If this campaign does come to pass, it may be up to the Libertarians and Republicans to help decide this primary election.

Are you ready to vote Democrat for the next primary?  While this is no slam against Robin or Martin, getting rid of Lacy may be our best hope for removing the scum that is Lacy Clay.  This year, the odds are already against a non Democrat winning that seat.  The best way to win this seat back for the people is to play the long game and use strategy on our side.  Get rid of Lacy and get someone like a Russ who is more pliable.  Use his more moderate leanings in some areas to our advantage.  Then, when the timing is right, he can be removed from office.

If this primary campaign comes to pass, the DNC will probably favor Lacy due to his involvement with the Congressional Black Caucus and because he is the incumbent for that district.  By voting for Russ in the primary, we are helping to ensure that Lacy does not get another shot at 2 years in office.

Some of you will balk at this idea and say that we should be above that.  To that let me say this.  Sometimes you have to play dirty to win.  There is nothing illegal or wrong with what I am advocating.  All you are doing, when you go into the polling place is saying you want a Democratic ticket.  That is all.

If you agree or disagree with me, I would love to hear your thoughts and comments.

What Now for the Republicans

Since my last post I have been out of sight.  There are several reasons for this, personal and professional obligations as well as research on a story that I am hoping will pan out.  If you have read my blog before, you can guess who I am researching.

During my absence we have seen the rise and fall of the candidate I was personally rooting for Herman Cain and am sad to see this man drug through the muck the way he was.  I think Ann Coultier was on to something when she associated the allegations with David Axelrod.  You can find more on this story HERE.

With the loss of Herman Cain as a candidate, the Republican party has a tougher job of defeating Obama.  A story like Cain's could not have been better.  He has a history of standing up to politicians as he did Bill Clinton, he was a self made business man and entrepreneur.  And, he did not take crap from anyone.  Tie Herman Cain with a smart VP candidate with knowledge on foreign affairs and you had a winner of a ticket.  Well, that is not going to happen now, so, what do we do.

Let's be honest, shall we.  Obama is going to go after whomever is chosen by the electorate as his opposition.  They are going to use the candidate's personal life, they are going to dig up any past indiscretion and they are going to mis-state the facts.  This will all be done with the assistance of the media.  The candidate that is selected has to be the one that can beat Obama not only with their ideas but is likeable by moderates, independents and Reagan Democrats.

Listen, you can be as high and mighty as you want when it comes to social values, but you are not going to win a national campaign that way.  To quote James Carville, "It's the economy stupid."  If a candidate can come across with a moderate social policy, strong defense and a strong fiscal policy that promotes small government, we should rally behind him.

The minions of Obama are already starting the game plan.  They are blaming Congress, both Dems and Reps for the economy.  They are propping him up for his action overseas and as the man that killed OBL.  They are stating that he came into office under bad terms and cannot be expected to fix everything in 4 years.  If you read Andrew Sullivan's article in Newsweek, he builds the case that everything Obama has started was based upon an 8 year plan. 

The person that is chosen for the Republican Presidential Candidate has to be someone who is electable in a general election.  So, with that said, who is that person?  Is it crazy uncle Ron Paul who makes some strong fiscal sense but talks a little nutty on foreign policy?  Is it creepy step-dad Newt Gingrich that says things that make sense and what you want to hear, but you wonder if he really means it?  Is it the over achieving cousin Mitt Romney that seems a little out of touch with the day to day life?  Is it the overshadowed cousin Rick Santorum who never really got the attention that he may have deserved?

I do not know who the right candidate is for the country.  None of these guys were my first choice.  I respect Jim Talent and he has good things to say about Mitt.  I respect Sarah Palin and she seems to lean towards Newt.  Mark Levin, who I think is both smart and entertaining, has endorsed Rick Santorum.  The very smart Judge Andrew Napolitana, from Fox News, has endorsed Ron Paul. 

All I can say is this.  We can bicker about who best represents what we want, but in the end, we need to elect someone that can win.  There is no way on God's green Earth that Obama is going to agree to a series of debates, Lincoln-Douglas style or otherwise with Newt.  We will be lucky to get 3 out of Obama and no more.  Without the debates, I do not think Newt is electable.  The debates are what is helping him out now.  Ron Paul, comes across as detached from foreign affairs as compared to Obama, so he would be eaten alive in the debates when it comes to foreign policy.  This lives Rick and Mitt.  I believe that of the available candidates, these two are our best choice. 

That said, no matter who the candidate is, we still have another issue.  If Obama is still down in the polls come time for the conventions, then this election will be made into a race issue.  No matter who the nominee is, we must have someone as the VP who can offset any claims of racism.  If it is true that Condi Rice wants to get back into the political game, it would be smart to look long and hard at her as a VP candidate.  For either Rick or Mitt, it would add much needed foreign policy experience.  Condi being a single, black professional woman can help offset racist and sexist Republican stereotypes.  All that and in the end she would be a damn fine VP who has a ton of experience and can go mano y mano agains a Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton should Joe step down as VP as some rumors suggest.